Outlook to 2030
Our latest look at the numbers shows average dual fuel bills in 2030 still around 13% higher than Q4 2025 levels in nominal terms if the new interventions are not kept in place. After inflation, that leaves bills slightly above current levels. Electricity prices are expected to rise faster than gas as network and policy charges offset falling wholesale costs.
What has changed
Government decisions not to renew the ECO scheme, shift 75% of domestic Renewable Obligation costs into general taxation and cut VAT on electricity to 0% from October have trimmed short-term costs. If the VAT and RO moves last, they could knock around £90 off a dual fuel bill in 2030. The catch is that both changes are only funded until next April and their future remains unclear. At the same time, recent events in the Middle East have pushed wholesale prices higher in 2026, though our modelling still assumes moderation by the end of the decade.
What needs to happen next
Greater transparency on future costs is essential. We need Ofgem to publish an independent outlook for bills before the end of the year so households can plan ahead. Network and policy costs must also be kept efficient while the sector invests in new infrastructure. Grid delays could push UK energy bills up by £7.8 billion a year shows how slow upgrades already risk adding to household charges. Finally, the £4.8bn energy debt mountain, forecast to reach £7bn by year end, needs a proper long-term fix rather than repeated short-term schemes.
Check our gas and electricity pages for the latest tariff options while the price cap moves.
